MOSCOW, Oct 28 (PRIME) -- The Audit Chamber expects the annual average nominal exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar at 69.2 in 2020 and then strengthen to 68.7 in 2021 and 68.4 in 2022–2023, according to the baseline scenario of Russia’s 2020–2023 socioeconomic development released on Wednesday.
The authority expects that the central bank’s key rate will remain at 4–4.25% during this period and the monetary policy will remain mild.
In the conservative scenario that encompasses quarantine measures until the summer of 2021, the Audit Chamber projects the average annual ruble rate at 72 rubles per dollar in 2020, 72.5 in 2021, 72.1 in 2022, and 71.8 in 2023.
The Audit Chamber expects an increase and stabilization of global oil prices at U.S. $55 per barrel already in 2022–2023, while growth to $60 per barrel in the next few years is unlikely, it said.
The annual average price of Urals oil blend is expected at $42 per barrel in 2022 and $50 per barrel in 2021.
In the baseline scenario, Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will decrease by 4.2% in 2020, in the conservative one it will fall by 4.8%. Both scenarios encompass that the Russian economy will return to growth in 2021: in the baseline scenario GDP will grow by 2.2% and in the conservative it will rise by 1.3%.
Investments will decrease by 4.5% in 2020 under the baseline scenario and by 5% under the conservative scenario. In 2021, they will grow by 2.5% under the baseline scenario and by 1.5% under the conservative one.
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